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PSJ/cd 1 DG G I EN
Brussels, 29.10.2009 SEC(2009) 1459 COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Accompanying document to the Herzegovina {COM(2009)596} EN
Problem analysis and needs assessment .......................................................................3 Background...................................................................................................................3 Recent economic developments and prospects ............................................................4 The Government's economic and fiscal reform agenda................................................6 External and budgetary financing needs in Bosnia and Herzegovina ..........................8 Objectives and Related Indicators of the macro-finantial assistance ...........................9 Objectives .....................................................................................................................9 Indicators ....................................................................................................................10 Alternative delivery mechanisms and risk assessment...............................................10 Delivery mechanisms .................................................................................................10 Risk assessment ..........................................................................................................10 Added value of Community involvement ..................................................................11 Genval criteria ............................................................................................................11 Planning future monitoring and evaluation ................................................................13 Monitoring ..................................................................................................................13 Evaluation ...................................................................................................................13 Achieving cost-effectiveness ......................................................................................13 EN 2
Background EN 3
Recent economic developments and prospects EN 4
EN 5
Indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP real growth 5.5 -3.0 0.5 4.0 6.0 Investments, % GDP 24.4 20.2 23.1 24.8 24.9 CPI inflation (average), % 7.4 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.5 Public Finance Revenue and grants (% GDP) 45.8 45.0 45.9 45.9 45.7 Expenditure (% GDP) 49.9 49.7 49.9 48.6 47.3 Fiscal Balance, after grants (% GDP) -4.0 -4.7 -4.0 -2.7 -1.5 External Position Current account balance (% GDP) -14.7 -9.7 -9.6 -9.5 -9.1 Gross reserves (months of imports) 5.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 Debt Public Debt (% GDP) 27.8 34.7 39.8 40.3 38.0 External debt service (% of exports) 8.0 11.3 12.3 12.5 11.5 The Government's economic and fiscal reform agenda EN 6
Box 1 Short-term measures of fiscal adjustment under the IMF programme Measures on the expenditure side are intended to save EUR 292 million (2.3% of GDP). These include: - On the state level (EUR 20 million): a reduction of spending on wages by 8%, meal allowances by 35% and vacation allowances by 20%; - In the Federation (EUR 212 million): a 10% reduction of all budget users and of all transfers to different social groups; a ceiling of 1% of the average wage on meal allowances; a reduction of the vacation allowance to 50% of the average wage from 75% of the individual wage; a suspension of allowances for participation in commissions, overtime work and contractual services, additional savings by cantons, municipalities and social funds; - In the Republika Srpska (EUR 60 million): a reduction of the salaries of highest paid civil servants by 10%; lowering daily allowances for business trips; unifying the rulebook on compensation; a hiring freeze for one year; reduction of veteran and disability benefits; expenditure cuts on wages in municipalities and health funds; a redefinition of early retirement requirements. Measures on the revenue side are intended to raise an additional EUR 83 million (0.7% of GDP): - Increased excises on tobacco, coffee and petroleum EN 7
External and budgetary financing needs in Bosnia and Herzegovina Table 2: Summary of Financing Needs 2008 2009* 2010* 1,986 1,411 1,471 1,842 1,201 1,234 143 211 237 60 114 117 83 97 120 1,986 1,411 1,471 202 218 230 529 258 500 655 82 50 590 210 315 380 215 245 210 -5 70 206 287 -75 -199 -76 -111 ... 433 563 EN 8
... 305 382 ... 103 51 ... 0 100 ... 24 30 12,550 12,423 12,801 O BJECTIVES AND R ELATED I NDICATORS OF THE MACRO - FINANTIAL ASSISTANCE Objectives · Contribute to covering Bosnia and Herzegovina's external financing needs; alleviate budgetary financing needs; · Support the fiscal consolidation effort in the context of an IMF programme; · In this respect, help Bosnia and Herzegovina reduce the financial constraints on the implementation of its comprehensive socio-economic reform programme; · Facilitate and encourage efforts of the authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina to implement measures identified under the European Partnership; · Reinforce the EU's role in the economic policy dialogue with the authorities of Bosnia and Herzegovina on the programme of reforms. EN 9
Indicators · Adherence to the IMF-supported programme; it will be a condition sine qua non for the implementation of the assistance; · Progress in the implementation of specific actions that will be part of the conditions for disbursement. Those actions will be specified in the aforementioned Memorandum of Understanding. They will be consistent with the policy lines anchored in the IMF programme, as well as the European Partnership Priorities. A LTERNATIVE DELIVERY MECHANISMS AND RISK ASSESSMENT Delivery mechanisms Risk assessment EN 10
A DDED VALUE OF C OMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT G ENVAL CRITERIA · Exceptional character: EN 11
· Scope: · Complementarity: · Conditionality: · Financial discipline: EN 12
P LANNING FUTURE MONITORING AND EVALUATION Monitoring Evaluation A CHIEVING COST - EFFECTIVENESS · The assistance will be made available by the Commission to Bosnia and Herzegovina in principle in two instalments. Each instalment will be released on the basis of a satisfactory track record in implementing the macro-economic agenda under the IMF-supported programme and the specific economic policy conditions attached to the assistance. The latter will be negotiated with the authorities as soon as possible and laid down in a Memorandum of Understanding concluded to this effect. EN 13
· In negotiating specific policy conditions, the Commission will draw on all available expertise, including of the IMF, the World Bank and of bilateral and multilateral aid agencies active in the same areas. In addition, the Commission will aim at synergies with other Community policies and instruments (notably the Instrument for Pre-Accession) that could be used to support the implementation by the beneficiary of the relevant measures (notably in the area of public finance management). Where appropriate, links to any related action under the European Partnership or findings of the Progress Reports can also be established. · This action is exceptional by nature and will not involve an increase in the number of Commission staff. EN 14
